Author(s)

Ying Cai, Mohan Tang, Haoluo Dan, Subi Shi

Corresponding Author

Ying Cai

Abstract

Firstly, this article provides a detailed analysis of the evolution process of aging in both spatial and temporal dimensions. By comparing and analyzing the aging population situation in different regions, this article finds that the aging degree in the economically developed eastern regions of China is particularly significant, while the aging degree in the western regions is relatively mild. However, overall, the issue of aging is becoming increasingly prominent in various parts of China and requires high attention and active response. Furthermore, this article delves deeper into the causes behind the phenomenon of aging, and clearly points out that the decline in fertility willingness, fertility rate, and mortality rate are the core factors that trigger aging. Based on the above reasons, it is predicted through data that the number of elderly population in China will continue to grow in the coming years, and it is expected that China will enter a stage of moderate aging around 2025. Finally, this article found through research that aging has multiple impacts on GDP, both positive and negative. This article uses the threshold model and VAR model, combined with the Delphi entropy weight method to calculate the comprehensive aging index. It deeply explores the impact of aging on industrial structure and how this impact affects GDP changes. In summary, this article provides theoretical basis and practical suggestions for addressing the challenges of population aging in China by studying the impact of population aging on GDP and its composition, which is of great significance for promoting sustained and healthy economic development in China.

Keywords

Aging Population, GDP Threshold Model, Industrial Structure